We’ve all heard the stories about Igor Panarin, the “academic” who has become extremely popular in the Russian state media for his prediction that the United States will dissolve into five separate countries within a year, but this one about a prophetess is really stretching one’s suspension of disbelief. Desperate times call for desperate illusions… From James Marson on the Guardian:
Another story of a similar ilk has sat at the top of the state-backed Moscow News’s
most-read list for the past few months: a “prophetess” called Vanga has predicted that Russia will dominate the world. Economists’ assessments of Russia, a country that currently accounts for about 3% of global GDP (comparable with the UK) and with per capita GDP at a quarter of the US level, are somewhat more sobering. Its economy is in serious trouble after years of neglected reforms, over-reliance on commodities and a failure to tackle rampant corruption. (…)
As the crisis increasingly reveals the gulf between Russia’s self-image and its real possibilities, the time of Panarin and Vanga could be coming to an end. Talk will surely move from fantasies about Russia challenging the US to the country’s very real internal problems and how to solve them. Previously deaf ears will begin to listen as the failures of the current leadership become clear in everyday life. The question that will then be raised is one that has been asked of Russian leaders for centuries: liberalisation, or crack down?
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I think that Panarin’s analysis are as relevant as many analysis we can see on Russia in western medias even on this blogue !He also wrote about foreign role in Russian economic crisis .The purpose of such analysis is different from reports like ” Global trends 2025 ” which claim to be ” serious ” : Its purpose is to ” think about the unthinkable ” and how to deal with it .The interresant thing in its analysis is that it came a few days or weeks before the Us bailout plan for the automotive industry and the harsh reactions of some Dixie lawmakers who refered to the times of …….. the ” civil war ” in the United States . The main motto was ” Us Big Governement funds yankee workers and industry tycoons and not southern entrepreneurs ” .Who could think that an automotive bailout plan can awake the ” civil war godzilla ” which is not dead ?In the thirties german publicist and traveller A E Johann noted that economic crisis sparked ” ethnic ” ( German , Irish , Italian , Latino and ……..Amerindian ) social revandications and some states like Vermont or Alaska which was living in autarcy claimed for self governance .Nazi-Austrian ” agent d’influence ” Colin Ross wrote in his ( forbidden ) book ” Unser Amerika ” how the crisis hit Amerindians and ethnic communities in the Us and how the federal governement didn’t respond to their claims sparking discontent among american communities . He also advised Nazi chiefs to sustain these discontents to set ablaze the Us . But this is another story ………It’s astonishing to see after hearing Julie Kittka in front of the Indian Affairs comitee last week how the Alskan Inuits claims for more federal money sounds like the Amerindians ones in the thirties and how their miscontents have not changed since this time .Us must also face a drug-war at the gates of their fuzzy-border with Mexico and this war may soon cross this so-called frontier and spread among the Latino comunity in the whole Us south and even in towns like NY or Chicago .James Marson , who is British ( ? ) , should also measure the gap between England will to ” rule the vawes ” [ UK is claiming a seat a the arctic council ! No more sir ! ] and the reality of the economy of it’s country : Crumbling Pound , crumbling real estate market , crumbling banks …………..Russia has still gigantic natural ressources , skilled manpower : Two elements that in classical geo-politics are the best opportunities to overcome crisis as noticed Emmanuel Todd .They are sill there unearthed even if these ressources need some foreign investments . It’s ” real economy ” and not ” virtual economy ” like the subprimes .And living over a bounty of oil ,gas , nickel ,and even grains …….is always more pleasant for the future and helps to see it with more quietness and self-confidence .This crisis is not to last for decades and all these ressources wil be needed in the future , so why worry and rethink a model for 24 monthes of hard economic times . Russian leaders are restructurating the economy by making ” national Behemothes ” , the last in the space sector as annonced yesterday by Roskosmos , who will be ready for the new departure of the world economy . Perhaps , it ‘s this which disturbs the Brits who don’t have the same opportunities ?Ps : I guess its ” my ” picture you published ?