One of the most subtle forms of discrimination is said to be embodied in the application of diminished expectations – which has certainly been the phenomenon toward Russia in recent years as compared to the high hopes following the collapse of the Soviet Union. This is a great country of great people with a great history – and there’s no reason why we shouldn’t have high expectations for it to develop into a strong and free society. Yet, as Keith Smith of CSIS notes in this briefing note, at some point the West, especially Europe, abandoned any expectation of a Russian return to normality and legality – a diminished expectation of accountability fueled largely by the corrosive political impact of the energy trade.
The larger or wealthier member states, led by Germany, Austria,France, and Italy are significantly less concerned than the newer EUmembers about the downsides of becoming more dependent on Russianenergy resources. Officials in these countries are often heardrepeating the mantra that Russia is a reliable source of oil and gas -thereby ignoring Moscow’s frequent use of energy disruptions as a toolto punish Central European governments. Being closer to the Atlantic orMediterranean, the larger EU member states have more readily availablealternatives to Russian fuel sources than do the ECE countries. Thewealthier member states also too often put the lure of commercialbusiness profit over regional security interests by partnering with aKremlin determined to play a larger role in Europe’s internaldecision-making. This stems in part from an exaggerated confidence inthe ability of the EU to restrain Russia from using corruption to gainpolitical influence in member countries or within the EU’s owninstitutions.
The collapse of the Soviet Union led to expectations in the Westthat Russia would become a “normal European state,” or at least abenign neighbor that could be counted on to engage in mutuallybeneficial business and cultural relations. And up until the beginningof Putin’s second term as president there were hopeful signs. For thepast five years, however, the ongoing transformation of Putin’s Russiain the direction of an authoritarian Oriental-style “democracy” hasbrought back the old insecurities in the new democracies regardingRussia’s foreign and defense policies. Meanwhile, the anti-Western andparanoid aspects of Russian thinking have been reinforced by thesiloviki’s need for an external enemy. This is promoted, in part, inorder to justify the siloviki’s increasing power at home, and theirpersonal wealth that is accumulated through the non-transparent use ofRussia’s energy resources. Moscow’s aggressive policies may be temperedby the reduction in Russia’s economic influence resulting from theworld financial crises. If it does happen, it may last only as long asoil prices are low. The reintroduction of military parades in RedSquare does not auger well for the idea that we will see a fundamentaltempering of Russian foreign policies.
Subscribe by Email
4 Comments
Why these ” New Europeans ” and Ukraine don’t built two , three , four , five regaseificaton plants as the ECFR suggests for the ” Old Europe ” and let this old Europe makes the deal it wants with Russia on the gas issue ?If they are afraid of the ” Russian blackmail ” why they dont buy LNG from Qatar , Algeria , Egypt , Norway ,Santo-Domingo , ………..and let the ” old Europe ” makes pipes like the Nord-Stream .The fact is that it is Poland , Ukraine , the Baltics which are blackmailing Germany , Italy and France !
The European Union should be bargaining collectively with the Russia over energy – the alliance needs a common policy which is fair to all parties.LNG makes up only a small part of gas imports to Europe at higher costs – and with Central Asia so close it makes the most sense for the product to be brought to the demand.Right not the pipelines feeding the EU are inefficient in their route by going to through Russia. A more direct path, and cost efficient, would be the Nabucco option, which the EU should pursue vigorously to ensure the highest level of energy security and competition of supply.Eastern Europe and the Baltics are not blackmailing Germany – they are legitimately concerned about the destabilizing ambitions of Russia’s expansionist foreign policy.
Those great expectations were not matched with the means to achieve them. From the West, they remained words. I you do not will the means, you are not serious about the ends. What the West actually did want is indicated by Western actions, namely to circumvent the will of the Russian people, expressed in their freely-elected legislature, against the imposition of the “Washington consensus”.And now, the Russian people know us by our actions, which is why they ignore all the vituperation we direct at their government.So, vituperate to your heart’s content. You will achieve none of your objectives.
Yes , of course Europe should speak on an united voice on energy issues but on which agenda ?As for the Iraq war , when people speak of an united voice , they want to say on the ” Polish-Baltics ” agenda which is certainly not the smaller European common denominator and even interest .As president Chirac said , the ” Old Europe ” has nearly fourty years of common understandings and will certainly not align itself with extremists agendas of the newcommers .On the fact of proximity , Nord-Stream is as relevant as Nabucco .Europe , thanks to its great extansion from west to east and north to south can have energy supplies fromRussian and Norwegian arctic , Central Asia and North-Africa and even Africa ( Nigeria ) .Europe must also interconnect its grids .If Russia represents 25% of European energetic supplies , it only reflects the fact that Russia is as close to Europe as Central Asia or other sources .I live in Marseilles , in the south of France and obviously the gas i use cames from Algeria throught LNG tankers and not from Novi-Urengoï !( i don’t ask myself on the ” democratic character ” of the Algerian gas , on this criterium i will certainly prefer Norwegian gas ;0)! )But when ENI’s CEO says that the Yamal peninsula is the future of Italy’s energetic supplies we must ask questions ourselves on this notion of proximity .