A new piece in the Economist sees no change in government coming for Russia for a long, long time. The main risk, the authors argue, is not bankruptcy or political crisis, but stagnation from failure to reform the economy (a similar point made by the New York Times today).
Why has this not led to more protests? Partly because the Kremlin is firmly in charge and partly because many Russians built up savings in the boom years and have yet to feel the full impact of recession. Besides, faith in the “good tsar” and low expectations of government mean that few blame Mr Putin, now Mr Medvedev’s prime minister.
In the past few months the Kremlin has also tried to show a friendlier face. Mr Medvedev gave his first full Russian interview to Novaya Gazeta, an opposition newspaper, on the grounds that its journalists “did not suck up to anyone”. He has acknowledged critics among non-governmental organisations. He hailed Barack Obama in their first meeting in London in April, inviting the American president to Moscow in July.
The trouble is that this has yet to produce any change. The secondsham trial of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, former boss of the Yukos oilcompany, makes a mockery of judicial independence. Better relationswith America are portrayed in Russia as a belated American recognitionof past errors and a vindication of the Kremlin’s assertiveness,notably over Georgia.
Nor is there any sign of the promised falling-out between a hardlineMr Putin and a liberal Mr Medvedev. In fact, the differences betweenthe two men are largely of style. After a year of Mr Medvedev’spresidency, only 12% of Russians feel that he is in charge, whereasover 30% believe that power remains with Mr Putin. And Mr Putin hashinted once again that he may resume the presidency for two moresix-year terms in 2012.
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4 Comments
Back in February 1999, when Russia was impoverished and on financial life support, The Economist’s attitude towards Russia was “No.”It is truly marvelous to see how frustrated they and other Russophobes are that the latest crisis has insufficiently impoverished Russians, so that they gone into the streets to pressure, or even overthrow, a Russian leadership that does not submit to the West’s will.I’m looking forward to further frustrated bleating from them (and you…) in the months ahead.
I thought that you would love an article like this, all about the permanent power of Putin? No change in government until his late death, like Brezhnev?This is not a Russophobe blog, you can find that elsewhere.
It’s amazingly inaccurate to claim that there are not signficant protests in Russia, or that the protest movement is not growing.Putin was just forced to make an emergency trip to St. Petersburg to quell open riots by unpaid workers who seized control of a major roadway, and legislation is now moving in the Duma to nationalize their employers.On the other side of the country, similar protests resulted in Putin being called “Putler” and invited to go into outerspace.The Russian economy is collapsing by any measure. The budgetary reserve fund will exhaust this year or early next and Russia will become a debtor nation. Both the IMF and World Bank agree that Russia will see no economic growth next year, and will continue to experience double-digit unemployment AND inflation, a perfect economic storm.Only the tactics of Stalin keep the lid on, and that will not work over the long haul any better than it did in Soviet times.Meanwhile, the laughing hyenas of from the Russophile set continue to rationalize rather than call for reform and regime change, just as they did in Soviet times. As always, they are by far Russia’s worst enemies. Solzhenitisyn was once a “Russophobe,” that’s why the Kremlin ejected him from the country. Time proved who was right, and we are proud to be “Russophobes” in the same spirit. You should be too, James.
Phob, Phob, Phoby.Indeed, times are hard, throughout the entire world. US unemployment is well over 9% for instance. But Russia, and Russians, have savings while the US and its people are in hock to their eyebrows.And how are those “leading free-market-democratic-reformers” Ukraine and the Baltics doing? Why, they’re in an utter economic death spiral.Russia’s stock market is the world’s biggest percentage gainer this calendar year, and the Ruble is up so much the Central Bank is selling of Dollars to keep it rising too fast. Some acconts are running low while serving the purpose intended, but Central Bank reserves are rising. Russia still has a trade and current account surplus, so Russia can pay her bills, unlike the Ukrainian/Baltic “reformers”.Yes, Phoby, your predictions of Russian economic collapse are founded on nothing more than your spite and bile, which are abndant indeed but powerless to harm Russia.