As readers are likely aware, things are more or less the same in Chisinau following the hotly contested and flawed election. The opposition to Vladimir Voronin and the Communist Party gained 53 seats in the parliament, which is enough to form a government, but it falls eight votes short of getting the presidency … meaning that Voronin can probably hang on. Europe sure didn’t try very hard to win over the population, while the Chinese and Russians pumped in money and guns.
Two things worth reading today – first is of course Scraps of Moscow, where Lyndon has some great posts about going to vote at a polling station in London, preceded by a survey of the media and informational war gathering speed in the tiny republic.
Second, Quentin Peel’s article in the Financial Times does a nice job explaining how we arrived to this point:
Yet, although it is tempting to see the poor people of Moldova as torn between East and West, that would be an exaggeration. According to opinion polls, 75 per cent want to join the EU, and 80 per cent trust Russia more than any other country. They want to have it both ways. (…)
Moscow clearly wants Moldova to remain part of its “privileged sphere of interest”, however miserable it may be. The EU wants to embrace it as part of its “Eastern partnership”. It is not an equal contest: Russia exerts its influence through a monopoly of energy supplies (and a growing Moldovan debt). The EU is offering vague promises of closer trade links and easier visa regulations.
Moldova has no interest in choosing between them. It needs them both.
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Voronin hang on?Not according to the NYT: “In line with the Constitution, Vladimir Voronin, Moldova’s departing president, dissolved Parliament and set new elections last month after the Communist Party twice failed to muster support from at least one opposition lawmaker needed to select a new president. In his eight years in power Mr. Voronin has been buoyed by an older generation nostalgic for the stability of Moldova’s Soviet past. In those years he has hewed closest to Russia, which maintains a contingent of troops in Moldova’s breakaway Transdniester region and supplies the majority of Moldova’s energy. Moscow also recently promised Moldova a $500 million loan. Mr. Voronin is obliged to step down, having served two terms, though he will remain in power until Parliament chooses a new president.”http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/31/world/europe/31moldova.html?_r=2&hpMoreover, just because the pro-West forces can’t pick a new leader on their own doesn’t mean the pro-Russia forces can do so either.By any standard, this is a devestating defeat for Russia. Your analysis is way off base.
Kim – yes, it was a huge setback for the Communists in Moldova, and therefore for Russia … but you still need 61 votes to be able to appoint a president. They don’t have it yet. Unless Lupu can pull over another 7-8 MPs from the Communists, they are screwed … and they have already rejected forming a coalitional type of deal.
James — yes, but since the communists can’t pick a leader either, how does that help Voronin? He can’t stay forever, can he? Or do you think he’s going to lure some of the opposition parties into forming a coaltion by promising them something?
I’m not saying any of this helps Voronin, but just that he isn’t packing his bags tonight. From what I read, Moldova is an incredibly presidential system, and the opposition would have trouble governing from the parliament. Voronin can also call yet another election within the next year, under potentially better economic conditions (especially if he gets $1 billion from the Chinese) and seize back some seats.
The most astonishing fact is that each analysies are focusing on the Russia-Moldova-”Western world ” or Communist-Liberal prism witout considering the regional dimension .The main issue is : Will Moldova be an independant state or will it make an ” Anschluss ” with Romania .Throught this issue , i think that Ukraine is not eager to see Moldova become a province of Romania and considers this state as a conveniant buffer state which will preserve its Romanian speaking provinces ( Bucovina )from the territorial apetite of Bucharest .For the 300 th anniversary of the Poltava battle , there have been a revival of ” Mazeppanism ” in Romania who is now seen as a ” Romanian National hero ” . And if Mazeppa is seen as a Romanian hero , it means all the territories he ruled were ” Romanian ” and should return one day under Romanian jurisdiction .This region is very interresting .There are plenty of powder barrels which only wait for a spark .And there are plenty torch holders in the aerea : Bucharest , Kyiv , Ankara , Moscow ……..Let’s talk about the Gagauzia Province of Moldova which looks rather to Moscow or Ankara than Bucharest or Chisnau for exemple .When you talk ” territory ” , it seems that the neurons of the most Europeophile and Natophile political leaders brains of the region are paralyzed and they become to think as people thought 200 or 250 years ago .A French geopolitician has called this a ” territorial libido ” .It’s perhaps the posthumous ” Victory ” of Communism in the region : It has freezed the thinkings as they were in the 1920′s or 1930′s .The European firefighter must check quickly its equipment !……………..