RA’s Daily Russia News Blast – Dec 16, 2014

TODAY: Central Bank hikes up interest rate in emergency measure to buoy rouble; prognosis bleak; results mixed so far; Russian media averts eyes. Obama mulls further sanctions; Lavrov hoping for Ukraine constitutional reform; Roscosmos suggests Russia go solo in space; HRW castigates Kremlin on LGBT rights abuses. In a dramatic move to halt the free […]

RA’s Daily Russia News Blast – Nov 27, 2014

TODAY: Results of OPEC meeting under scrutiny as oil prices bode ill for Russian budget; Merkel launches verbal attack on Moscow for Ukraine conflict; reports of new convoy entering emerge; NATO perturbed by Kremlin’s warfare tactics;  Kremlin negotiating $3 billion missile deal with China. Dozhd editor honored by CPJ.  With the news that Russia foresees […]

RA’s Daily Russia News Blast – April 25, 2014

TODAY: Kiev and Moscow dig heels in over crisis; Russia launches drills, Kiev demands explanation; Washington highly critical.  Sanctions prompt S&P ratings cut; Navalny faces another six months of house arrest; Putin offers his take on the origins of the Internet. The situation in eastern Ukraine has reportedly deteriorated, after Ukrainian forces killed up to five […]

The 2013 Resource Nationalism Checklist

The list is our attempt to respond to what we see as a relatively underdeveloped marketplace of ideas when it comes to scenario planning for expropriation, unfair regulatory intervention, nationalizations, and resource nationalism events that have an impact on foreign investors in emerging markets.

Video: Maplecroft on Resource Nationalism

Over on the FT’s Beyond Brics blog, a very interesting video interview with James Smither, associate director at risk consultancy Maplecroft, on how shifts in commodity prices can undermine a country’s resource leverage and the more nuanced ways revenue can be retained within domestic borders.

Pray for Chávez (Really)

Writing at the Weekly Standard, Vanessa Neumann re-emphasizes the reason why, for the sake of Venezuela’s future, you should root for Hugo Chávez to come back to see his system of governance completely destroyed by the disaster he created.  If not, there is the risk of martyrdom, because whomever is going to be the next […]

Minimising Political Risk in Frontier Markets

From Venezuela to South Africa to Indonesia, we have observed policies of resource nationalism that respond to ideological imperatives. In Canada and Australia similar problems arise out of suddenly aggressive tax regimes based on financial imperatives. And lastly, in challenging markets such as Central Asia as well as China, you have risks of state intervention guided by arcane clan politics and internal power dynamics.

RA’s Daily Russia News Blast – Dec 14, 2012

TODAY: Russia admits possibility of Syrian rebel victory; Putin suggests measured response to Magnitsky bill; EBRD says Russia failing to diversify economy; Rosneft seeks capital. Clear Russian involvement in Litvinenko case, says British coroner; protestors keen on Dec 15 march despite ban; Lady Gaga defends gay rights. ‘One must look facts in the face’: Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia’s deputy […]

The New Cartelisation

Remember a few years ago when Russia was having fun talking about a natural-gas OPEC?  It was largely derided at the time considering wildly different nature of the trade of this commodity (not the same spot market as oil), and then wholly forgotten when the shale boom crashed prices. But it would be a mistake […]

Boom Times for Mozambique

Four of the five largest oil and gas discoveries in the world this year have been made the waters off Mozambique, while the country has averaged above 8% growth for a decade. What are you waiting for?