Gazprom, Libya, and the Gas OPEC
These are indeed tough times for energy, and not just for spiraling oil prices and the burden of filling your gas tank. It’s been almost a year and a half since now we first started blogging about Russia’s perceived efforts to form a natural gas cartel, kicked off by the FT’s coverage of a secret “gasfinger” memo being circulated by NATO economists. Analysts were initially skeptical about the gas cartel: given the regional markets aspect of natural gas, prices on the spot market could never be manipulated by production quotas as they are with oil. Others, such as our own expert energy blogger Derek Brower, see the gas cartel as a big threatening bluff used by the Russians as leverage for other deals. Both Gazprom and Putin have oscillated with alarming swings between denial of the cartel and vague promises, depending on whether they were meeting with the ayatollahs or the EU competition commissioner. I’ve always argued that the cartel is not about controlling prices, but is about carving up markets and diminishing competition. Regardless of which view you subscribe to, the issue of gas cartel is back in the news yet again following Vladimir Putin’s symbolic visit to Libya, and the announcement in Kommersant that the Russians are preparing to take a draft charter for a gas OPEC to Iran for revision.