If it were possible for opinion polls to take the place of actual voting, Vladimir Putin would be a very happy man today.  Just a couple weeks ago Levada Center predicted a robust 62% of the vote, which, one would assume, would mean that the Prime Minister could confidently push through election day without stuffing ballots.  There is a well established literature on why polls don’t measure up to the democratic process (people don’t always tell the truth), which is only part of the reason why it is so disappointing to see the current leadership rely so heavily on polls over the technicalities of the election results.

Yes, Putin has sufficient support to win an election without committing fraud, so why then are we almost sure to see irregularities today?  Why are some opposition parties banned from registering and banished from the airwaves if, as we are told, they are laughably small and carry no public support?  Evidently, this is not a person with much tolerance for any level of uncertainty.

We are told by Putin’s supporters that we can tolerate these unlawful embarrassments because, at the end of the day, Levada says he would have won anyways.  The fact that we nevertheless still see fraud and manipulation speaks to the profound absence of trust in the system and the paranoia of the security service mentality that has infected the political process over the past decade.  Putin does not believe in his own legitimacy, and the reckless urgency with which he is taking back presidential powers speaks to the extent of his fears over future prosecution.