[Editor’s note: Andrei Novikov is a Russian journalist, who at one point was subjected to involuntary psychiatric confinement after publishing articles critical of local government. His case first rose to international attention on this blog and was supported by Reporters without Borders. From time to time, he contributes opinion essays to us. Below he explores some of the tricky issues of the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Georgia.] A GAME OF BILLIARDS IN THE BLACK SEA? The Medvedev- Sarkozy plan may collapse… By Andrei Novikov, Independent Journalist The war in Georgia is turning more and more into a war around Georgia, a gradual internationalization of the conflict is taking place. America is getting good and ready very slowly, and will be getting good and ready for another year yet. The real outcome of Russia’s adventurism in the Transcaucasus became the rallying together of the countries of Eastern Europe, the Baltic and Ukraine, who felt a threat to themselves. The creation of the long-awaited Black Sea-Baltic belt, from the Baltic States from the Black Sea, which surrounds Russia. Yet another consequence of the war could become a sharp divide in society itself within Russia.