There are probably three moments we can identify over the past six years which may be regarded as the critical junctures in Russia’s relations with Europe and the United States:  1) the state’s theft of Yukos, 2) the 2006 New Year’s Day gas supply cut-off to the Ukraine, and 3) the 2008 invasion of Georgia.  Each case involved radically different groups and forces, but all three underscored an institutional rejection of long-standing international rules and norms.

With Yukos, the state seems to have refined its methodology to joint-venture expropriation, while the Georgia war is so recent that we still await to see how much territory will be annexed back into Russia, but the Ukraine dispute – and the issue of the energy weapon in general – looks like it is about to make a comeback this holiday season. 

According to media reports, Gazprom executives are refusing to sign any new supply agreements with the Ukraine until a $2 billion debt is paid – an amount which officials dispute as being distorted by the extraordinary opacity of the third-party gas traders.