December 18, 2008 By James Kimer

Another Supply Cut Coming to the Ukraine?

naftogaz121808.jpgThere are probably three moments we can identify over the past six years which may be regarded as the critical junctures in Russia’s relations with Europe and the United States:  1) the state’s theft of Yukos, 2) the 2006 New Year’s Day gas supply cut-off to the Ukraine, and 3) the 2008 invasion of Georgia.  Each case involved radically different groups and forces, but all three underscored an institutional rejection of long-standing international rules and norms.

With Yukos, the state seems to have refined its methodology to joint-venture expropriation, while the Georgia war is so recent that we still await to see how much territory will be annexed back into Russia, but the Ukraine dispute – and the issue of the energy weapon in general – looks like it is about to make a comeback this holiday season. 

According to media reports, Gazprom executives are refusing to sign any new supply agreements with the Ukraine until a $2 billion debt is paid – an amount which officials dispute as being distorted by the extraordinary opacity of the third-party gas traders.