Benefiting from Instability
Doublespeak is not a uniquely Russian characteristic, but when they do it, it is pulled off with artistry and aplomb. Emblematic of the country’s icon of the double-headed eagle, everyone from a citizen to a tourist to an investor is bound to have the experience at one point of being told one thing by the government, and then seeing the exact opposite happen. The energy market is of course not immune to the trend. Today, reports are picking up on an interview published in Itogi magazine with Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller, in which he denies any interest in having Russia join a potential natural gas cartel: “If one day there’s talk of creating a gas OPEC, these lessons should be taken into account… Right now it’s not even worth talking about it.” Miller seems to strongly contrast with his boss, Vladimir Putin, who following some very chummy meetings with Iran’s Ayatollah in April of 2007, said “Who told you that we turned down an offer to create a cartel? Quite the opposite, in fact. I said that it was an interesting suggestion!” Given that even the resource speculators are hoping for a gas cartel to boost their returns, and that Miller isn’t exactly the bastion of credibility after his $250 oil remark, one would be inclined to interpret the exact opposite from this statement; that Gazprom and the Kremlin are indeed working on building a gas version of OPEC. But that’s almost beside the point – it’s the instability of these mixed messages that creates the benefits.