The following is an excerpt from a new article I contributed to the U.K. magazine Prospect.  Since the time of writing, several important events have taken place in Venezuela.  Chávez has used his decree powers to pass new internet regulations, allowing the government of a degree of control and censorship online similar to China or Thailand (which is a disappointment for the Cubans, who are being connected to Venezuela via fiber optic cable), while Human Rights Watch has come out strong to condemn the government’s instrumentalization of the judicial system to persecute its opponents.

Ever the astute populist, Chavez knows his own citizens are becoming increasingly dissatisfied: concerned about spiralling murder rates (at least 14,000 in 2009, four times the death toll for the same year in Iraq), chronic power shortages (a 12 per cent generation deficit that leaves the grid dependent on rolling blackouts), a frozen construction sector (the expropriation of some 200 building companies has exacerbated the housing crisis), and waning levels of oil production (despite high global prices, production was down 3 per cent last year). It is getting harder for him to ignore these realities by simply yelling about Yankee imperialism–which is why he is taking Mugabe-style steps to prepare for yet another presidential term in 2012. After his ruling party lost a large number of seats in September’s election, he started rushing through an aggressive legislative agenda and appointing a series of new, loyal Supreme Court justices and lower judges. As he knows, control over the legal system is key to his hold on power, and the next few months could be critical in this campaign. Before losing his super majority in the National Assembly, for example, he granted himself five months of decree powers. (…)