Insofar as the official reaction, both military officials and the U.S. State Department appear to be handling Russia’s increased activism and showmanship in Latin America with measured dismissals – no big deal, nothing to worry about.  In fact, during the daily media briefing earlier this week, spokesman Sean McCormack made a joke out of the naval exercises involving Venezuela and Russia’s nuclear frigate Peter the Great, remarking “Are they accompanied by tugboats this time?“  (This of course reminds me of the State Department’s reaction to the resumption of Russia’s long-haul bomber flights, when McCormack again made fun of Russia’s outdated military equipment – “If Russia feels as though they want to take some of these old aircraft out of mothballs and get them flying again, that’s their decision.“)

But let’s not take the U.S. reaction out of context.  Following his tugboat joke, McCormack was careful to explain the nice cooperation with Russia at APEC, and that the military is carefully monitoring what the Russians and Venezuelans are up to, but regard these joint military exercises as non-threatening independent decisions of sovereign governments.  Yes, it is provocative, but at this juncture, close observation is the most prudent reaction.

Our sense is that the U.S. is reluctant to concede to Russia’s artificial attempts to create leverage.  They want to resist the Ukraine-ization of Venezuela, and not start needlessly panicking over absurd hypothetical scenarios, or later somehow find themselves in a corner whereby they have to give up a big concession to Russia in return for having them pull out of the Caribbean.  For the Kremlin, there is of course the question of the quickly burning fuse, and how much time is left before these mini-Cold War actions need to be separated from the sincere and the rhetorical. 

While we hope that cool heads will prevail, Russia’s attempt to sow panic and create leverage is certainly working in the media.  Today’s editorial in the Los Angeles Times, excerpted below, is likely exactly the kind of reaction that Moscow is hoping to create.