Deepening Political Risk in Brazil
Who doesn’t love Brazil? Its raw beauty, bountiful human and natural resources, and strong economy have helped make it the democratic pearl of the BRIC nations. Few other countries have enjoyed such a prominent winning streak for the national pride, having been awarded the Olympic Games for 2016 in Rio, the FIFA World Cup for 2014, and the all around global appeal of the outgoing two-term President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, described by Barack Obama as “the most popular politician on earth.”
Most importantly, the diverse nation of almost 200 million has won the seal of approval from foreign investors, with the Bovespa predicted to rise above 90,000 points next year, a steady 7% GDP growth, foreign reserves topping $250 billion, and recent discoveries of some 15 billion barrels of deepwater oil off its shores.
However with such levels of disproportionate hype, there are some concerns among observers regarding what Brazil will look like without the out-sized personality of President Lula projecting the will of the administration at home and abroad. His protege Dilma Rousseff, who handily won the presidential election as expected on Oct. 31, was plucked out of obscurity and presented before voters as an extension of Lula himself, and indeed, her victory is seen more as a vote of approval for Lula than a selection based on platform.
Accusations that President Lula is seeking to emulate the Russian model of circumvention around term limits by installing a puppet are not without grounds, and a sense of impending political risk to the calculated balance of democratic governance are making the rounds.