September 25, 2008 By James Kimer

Exposing Russia’s Economic Fragility

A couple interesting pieces out there today on the Russian market jitters and what the falling price of oil is exposing. First, from CFR.org:

In fact, the 2008 crisis bears several similarities to the economic breakdown that unfolded almost exactly one decade prior. The first and most obvious is the rapidly plummeting price of oil, the commodity on which Russia’s economy floats. While oil prices currently remain well above the lows of a decade ago, current prices have lost significant ground since their July peak of over $147 a barrel, hitting a low in early September of just over $90 (CNN). This sharp volatility proved unnerving for Russia, which produces more oil than any country other than Saudi Arabia. Moscow also relies on exports of natural gas and other commodities, the prices of which have also plummeted from summer highs. Additionally, analysts say the short-term outlook for commodity prices is anything but certain. Major producers worry that failing financial institutions, which had speculated heavily in crude and pushed up prices, could now be forced to rapidly unwind those positions, potentially leading to further price declines. Anders Aslund, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, wrote in the Moscow Times that this phenomenon could stretch beyond oil and lead to broader withdrawals of investments in Russian markets.

And from the Financial Times:

The fall in the oil price from a July high of $147 a barrel back to $100 has helped expose a fragility in heavily indebted Russian companies, banks and individuals leading to a sudden process of deleveraging and credit restrictions similar to that which has stalked US and European economies for the past year.