For quite a while now, if you wanted to know what was strategically important to the Kremlin, you just had to follow the passport stamps accumulated by Deputy PM Igor Sechin (vacations in Cuba and Caracas, tea with Viktor Bout, etc.).  As such, on Sunday he popped up in Vienna, Austria for a meeting with the heads of the oil cartel OPEC, happy to flaunt Russia’s important-sounding status title as “permanent observer.”  As usual, the Russians were rhetorically supportive of the cartel, and Sechin gave the longest speech to the group in his country’s history.

But if Russia is so supportive of OPEC, why have they never become a member?  There are plenty of answers to that, but our theory over here is that 1) they want to benefit from the price manipulation without having to commit to cuts in output, and 2) a general, anti-institutional perspective that seeks avoidance of rule-based structures.  OPEC may be a mafia, but it is a structured one with bylaws, voting, and group decision making – all anathema to Moscow.

So how long is OPEC willing to let the Russians play the flirtation game?  Some signs of strain are already showing.  Secretary General Abdalla el Badri took an indirect shot at the Russians today in commenting about oil producers who “take advantage” of the organization, and a reporter on a WSJ blog is indicating that despite the empty statements this week, Moscow may be trending toward a “more meaningful” relationship with the cartel.