Just this evening the FT has broken a story of considerable importance: According to an unnamed, high ranking official in Nigeria’s energy sector, Gazprom has made an aggressive offer to make major investments in the African nation’s energy infrastructure in exchange for shares in key gas fields – a move which already has critics crying foul. Described by Matthew Green as “one of the boldest forays in the global fight for African energy assets,” this move by the Russians shows in no uncertain terms the Kremlin’s determination to preemptively co-opt alternative natural gas sources – a familiar pattern we have seen in practice everywhere from Turkmenistan to Iran to Algeria to Bolivia. At least now people are beginning to pay attention to the real motives behind these actions. What is particularly interesting is how this unnamed official gives us an inside view into Gazprom’s negotiating tactics: “What Gazprom is proposing is mind-boggling,” he told the FT. “They’re talking tough and saying the west has taken advantage of us in the last 50 years and they’re offering us a better deal … They are ready to beat the Chinese, the Indians and the Americans. … Gazprom is saying, ‘We’re better than Shell or any other company that has exploited you for the past 50 years’” Hearing Gazprom give lectures on the evil exploitation of big oil in Nigeria must have seemed richly ironic to the petroleum ministers, who won’t be buying into this paternalistic “exploitation narrative”, at least privately. Anyone who has worked in Nigeria knows that the various groups and clans in control of the petroleum sector are far more sophisticated and savvy energy experts than one may expect, and most certainly know how to cut a favorable deal. However there is also good reason to think that Russia could succeed with these plans in Nigeria, especially given the attractive political incentives Mr. Putin can attach to any Gazprom offer – making competition with any normal non-state owned company laughable. President Umaru Yar’Adua (pictured) has previously made bold declarations about his plans to develop the natural gas sector in Nigeria (most of which is currently wasted by flaring – which oddly Russia recently surpassed Nigeria in this regard), and having Putin come along offering billions might just be irresistible. However there are also several reasons for us not to jump the gun yet. We have seen other cases of Gazprom’s strategic “premature contractualization” – whereby the greatest impact of a proposed deal is not the acquisition itself but rather the conduct it forces upon other parties. Some may recall how terrified the Italians were when Gazprom signed an MoU with Algeria’s Sonatrach, yet after Scaroni subsequently made Eni Russia’s largest gas customer and after the Kremlin somehow convinced him to purchase stolen Yukos assets that no other company would touch with a ten-foot pole, the MoU with Algeria totally dissolved into nothing. Will these promises to take over Nigeria’s gas actually materialize, or is Gazprom looking for more leverage over the Europeans in other areas? Given that I have worked in Nigeria on and off for more than 25 years, I will be following this story closely, and will offer some more comprehensive thoughts in the near future. More details after the jump.