Grigory Pasko: Debating the Khodorkovsky Verdict

At the trial of the former owners of the Russian oil company YUKOS the procurators – the party of the state prosecution have completed their appearances in the final submissions. That is, the decreeing of the verdict of the judges of the Khamovnichesky Court is not that far off. After Vladimir Putin’s interview during the time of the canary run it became clear not only that the premier is not aware about the second trial of Khodorkovsky, but also that the Khamovnichesky Court is not going to start dragging things out with the verdict. And now the final arguments are already coming to an end, the verdict itself is not that far off. Opinions about what it will be like, – a mass. Here are some of them. Если Вы хотите прочитать оригинал данной статьи на русском языке, нажмите сюда.

Deputy Director-General of the Center for Political Technologies Alexey Makarkin sees three variants of how things might develop. The first – a factually improbable complete acquittal of the defendants. The second scenario – a not-large term for the YUKOS figurants (an acquittal with respect to the principal charges and recognition as grounded of second-tier ones). With release after the completion of the parliamentary and presidential campaign. By the way, in this case, notes Makarkin, big chances appear for Khodorkovsky and Lebedev for conditional early release [on parole], «if, of course, various kinds of penalties will not be wedging their way into the situation». The third, most realistic variant today, conviction «for the whole nine yards». Such a kind of scenario, Makarin is convinced, is harmful for the country».Slon.ru has drawn up several scenarios of a possible outcome of the case of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev. According to the forecasts that are the most optimistic for the defendants, Khodorkovsky and Lebedev may be released already in the year 2011. And the maximal term, according to the computations of Slon.ru – 25 years of deprivation of liberty. There are other variants too: the president at any moment can make use of his right to pardon. Besides that, Khodorkovsky and Lebedev can hope for conditional early release (with respect to the first case – already from the year 2007).Many of the experts surveyed by Slon.ru, indeed, are positively attuned and think that the disgraced oligarchs will come out to liberty way earlier than the year 2032.Khodorkovsky’s first lawyer Genrikh Padva, like the head of the «National anticorruptional committee» Kirill Kabanov as well, considers that one needs to expect a decision of the president on pardon. In the opinion of political scientist Alexey Mukhin, Khodorkovsky’s and Lebedev’s chances of finding freedom in the year 2011 are – 7 out of 10. Political scientist Dmitry Badovsky assesses the probability that the defendants will come out to liberty already in the year 2011 and that they will get a rather severe term of 15 years of deprivation of liberty more or less the same (4 points out of 10). But then oppositioneer Eduard Limonov refused to forecast anything whatsoever, having said: «Let the evildoers decide the fates of people».The journalist Alexander Minkin considers: « There are no doubts. The smiles of the procurators promise anything at all except leniency for the defendants. The prosecution will request a real term. Unlikely less than ten years…».For me personally, closest and most understandable of all is the opinion of Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s lawyer Yuri Schmidt, who in one of the interviews to the question «With what, in your opinion, will the second trial end?« responded: « In this case nothing is impossible to predict, because they are judging, as if being guided by the CC and the CCP [the Criminal Code and the Code of Criminal Procedure], but the decision, it’s being adopted in another place. Because according to the norms of law this case does not exist.Source and graph