Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is known for his erratic behavior, but his latest move to extend official recognition to Georgia’s separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia during his visit to Moscow is a bit of a head-scratcher.  In theory, it shouldn’t come as a surprise, as probably the strongest predictor of Chávez’s future behavior is anything perceived to be contrary to U.S. interests.  That includes sometimes illogical policies and relationships, such as red carpet welcomes for Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir, cooperation with Iran on missile and nuclear technology, hugs for Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, and tea parties with Coronel Muammar Qaddafi. 

What is strange is that Chávez waited a whole year before joining up with his surrogate state Nicaragua in recognizing the Georgian enclaves.  Consistent with the Russians, the Venezuelan leader stoutly refused to recognize Kosovo back in February 2008, and one could sense that Chávez was eagerly interested in throwing a monkey wrench into Washington’s efforts to challenge Russia’s self-proclaimed sphere of influence.  He also welcomed Moscow’s naval war games in the Caribbean and offered other bellicose rhetoric to his country’s largest trade partner and principal oil refiner.   Comparisons have been drawn between Russia’s presence in Venezuela and Washington’s cooperation in Georgia (though as an imperfect allegory, the provocation largely failed).

So why now do the recognition?  A number of factors have come into play to change the equation, which include Bolivia, Iran, arms, and some big business for state-owned energy companies.