Is Afghanistan Becoming Russia’s Mexico?
It is an imperfect analogy in many respects, such as population, immigration, development, and Islamic extremism just to name a few, but the growing problem the Russian Federation is facing from the ongoing war in Afghanistan and the massive growth in narcotics exports has some parallels to Mexico’s war on drugs.
Growing consumption of heroin and opium by Russian citizens is posing a public health crisis in many regions blighted by unemployment and neglect, and the issue has been seized upon as a diplomatic urgency by the very influential new drug czar, Viktor Ivanov, an arch-silovik and veteran of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Some time ago we published some posts speculating that the narco trade from Afghanistan would become the new “missile shield” in terms of Russia’s rhetoric toward NATO – and after accusing the defense alliance of colluding in “narco-terrorism” against Russia, it will be hard to back down from such tough words.
However if the goal of Ivanov’s offices is to stem the flow of drugs into Russia (and we shouldn’t underestimate the impact of multiple objectives here), he might need to take a look at all the mistakes experienced by the United States in its dealings with Mexico, and consider alternative approaches which involve working with, not against, NATO and local Afghan authorities.