Carl Mortished of the Times has a new piece about $250 oil and the relationship to Gazprom’s output problems. He writes that although “the Russian firm enjoys scaring Westerners; it is ill at ease with its enormous wealth, and bears a grudge of embarrassment over the criticism it suffered in its clumsy handling of a dispute with Ukraine.” Mortished writes that the prediction conceals nervousness that the winning streak is coming to an end.

But the key to Gazprom’s warning is Russia, and its failure to continue raising its oil output. The steady rise in Russian oil output over the last decade has almost single-handedly fed the ravenous growth in demand for crude in China. Without Russia, China’s economic boom would probably have stuttered to a halt several years ago. But the output growth rate is now fading fast and voices have been raised within the Russian oil fraternity that 10 million barrels per day may be as far as it can go. Russian oil production has declined for five months in a row to less than 9.5 million b/d. The IEA is still reckoning 10 million b/d for the year, an optimistic forecast given the turmoil at one of the country’s biggest producers, TNK-BP, where a power struggle is being waged between BP, several oligarchs and, again, Gazprom.