The issue of declinism, specifically the generalized decrease of U.S. dominance over resources of international power, has become one of the most hotly debated topics among observers.  Some lament these shifting balances as though it were Rome in its final years, while others hail the redistribution of influence as an exciting and overdue graduation to a multipolar world.  Most of the rest of us are just seeking to understand how these processes are taking place, and what the practical implications will be for competing interest groups.

Most of the material I have been reading relating to these imagined futures has taken a rather pessimistic tone, prematurely awarding the crowns to the rise of the BRIC nations, while emphasizing an global environment of decreasing support for human rights, international law, institutions, and rule-based expectations.

But as predictably as the media’s pendulum’s swings, a new series of arguments come out urging a more rational assessment of the velocity and depth of these changes between the world’s leading powers and their economies – suggesting that in the end the U.S. is going to continue to remain quite important for some time to come.  I’m not sure I am buying it.