London-based Exclusive Analysis offers their insights to Reuters on the immediate outlook for the oil and mining sectors in Russia. Among the highlights:
- Rosneft and Transneft are likely to have the most trouble meeting their debt obligations, though default is unlikely.
- The break-even oil price for developing hard-to-reach deposits in Russia is $75.
- Gazprom will be hard pressed to pursue all of its new projects.
- Oleg Deripaska is unlikely to be able to reschedule all of Rusal’s $8 billion in deby due for repayment this year.
- The likely outcome of the various M&A discussions underway in the metals sector is a maximum 25% ownership stake by the Russian government, which will signify the first time in 15 years that the Russian government has held any significant interest in the metals or mining sectors.
Full interview accessible here.