Amid a spate of articles conjecturing about the 2012 presidential elections, today on RFE/RL Richard Sakwa puts forward a convincing argument for why Vladimir Putin is unlikely to return to the position in two years time:

Even though he undoubtedly harbors aspirations to return to the presidency, and he is constitutionally entitled to do so, political calculations make this a hazardous enterprise. After all, he was the one who chose Medvedev in the first place, and any attempt to prevent the latter’s second term would be an implicit recognition that the choice was not a good one, thus reflecting poorly on Putin’s judgment. Allowing Medvedev a second term would reinforce stability and “continuity,” the watchword of the 2008 succession. Anything else would entail a political disruption.