The shooting down of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over Ukrainian separatist-held territory yesterday represents an unfathomable, heartbreaking horror – the second tragedy to strike the carrier within months, while almost certainly changing the course of history in the current conflict if not the wider post-Soviet space.

While not all the facts are clear at the moment, almost three hundred people have lost their lives just one day after tougher sanctions went into effect against many of Russia’s top companies and financial institutions. MH17 was flying in approved airspace almost 20 miles above the Donetsk region, and was most likely struck SA-17 Buk 2 surface-to-air missile system. Both Russia and the separatists deny their involvement, claiming they would lack the sophisticated armament to take down a plane, however a June 17 report by ITAR-TASS reported that the rebels had seized control of a Buk system, and two other Ukrainian military cargo planes had been brought down in recent weeks.

Russia gains absolutely nothing from this terrible tragedy, while the Donetsk separatists in fact stand to lose the most, so the argument that the aircraft was intentionally taken down is not very plausible. Russia’s state media is busy pushing a “false flag” accusation that Kiev shot down MH17 with the intention of blaming it on the rebels, but this has not been supported by any of the facts thus far.