During the last showdown between Gazprom and the Ukraine in 2006, there were two competing narratives about the company’s motivations behind the supply cut – one arguing that the dispute was purely commercial, and the other pointing to an attempt to knock over the new pro-Western government.  This time around, these competing narratives have evolved into a veritable war of ideas – one that the Russians are winning handily.

Some will recall that very early on, media outlets were reporting on the deployment of press junkets, lobbyists, and a surge of public relations activities on behalf of Gazprom in anticipation of the supply cut.  This is of course in addition to the business partners with close connections to European governments which lobby on behalf of their interests, successfully stifling everything from NATO expansion to energy unbundling.

It’s clear that the Russian government has learned a lot since the last time, and their dramatic success in getting the President of the European Union to describe the dispute as a bilateral commercial issue is nothing short of a coup, illustrating just how weak the EU has become in defending its own energy security.