Perhaps NATO can spend its way into influence within the new government in Bishkek, but more and more, it seems like the leverage will play out between the Chinese and Russians, and it’s not clear if they agree on the issue of Manas.  From Richard Weitz in the Diplomat:

Beijing appears not yet to have made a formal decision on Manas and Chinese officials may find themselves equally cross-pressured. Manas’ location only 200 miles from the China-Kyrgyzstan border, combined with Washington’s longstanding military cooperation with Taiwan and Japan as well as its growing security ties with India, invariably has stimulated fears of US encirclement. On the other hand, Chinese leaders thus far have avoided directly challenging the NATO military presence in Kyrgyzstan.