Russia Won’t Fall…Yet
Contrary to Garry Kasparov’s claims, it does look unlikely that Russia will follow Egypt down the path to revolution, not necessarily due to lack of public fervour, but certainly at least due to the government’s zeal in cracking down on protesters. Reuters today addresses the question of whether or not the ‘wave of revolution‘ will spread, examining the rigor with which police monitor protests, and, with a nod to the 10,000-strong Kaliningrad protest last January, suggests that the Kremlin’s luck won’t run out until the oil does:
Now, with oil prices rising again — they hit $100 the first week of the Egypt protests — most observers believe the world’s biggest energy producer has enough oil money to douse any social tensions ahead of the 2011 parliamentary and 2012 presidential elections. Russia is accelerating out of the economic crisis and the $1.5 trillion economy is expected to grow by more than 4 percent this year after a 4 percent rebound in 2010.