Tracing the policy movements of Presidential power-handler Vladislav Surkov is rather like witnessing a three-point turn in a dark alley – as a piece in the Power Vertical points out today.  Whilst transparency is the last thing once can expect from the Kremlin’s shadowy ideologue, his moves of late are dizzying analysts.  Brian Whitmore identifies some of Surkov’s recent twists – from the motives for his alleged involvement in the Duma walkout – to the matter of his oscillating stance on liberalizing political structures to aid economic development.

Whitmore quotes from a Stratfor.com analysis, which suggests that Surkov’s maneuvring is underpinned by a familiar motive: power rivalry. 

In a recently published four-part series titled “The Kremlin Wars,” Stratfor.com offers up one possible answer.

According to Stratfor, the Kremlin is divided into two roughly equal clans — one headed by Surkov and one led by his archrival, Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin:

It is the classic balance of power arrangement. So long as these two clans scheme against each other, [Prime Minister Vladimir] Putin’s position as the ultimate power is not threatened and the state itself remains strong — and not in the hands of one power-hungry clan or another.