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The Coming Unrest in Russia

Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, has really been on a tear lately, with the launching of a new blog over at Foreign Policy and numerous appearances in the press.  Sometimes they have decent intelligence, sometimes the insights are obvious, and once in a while, they irk people like Joshua Foust over at Registan.net.  I don’t mean to be unkind (Robert Amsterdam’s firm competes in this area of consultancy), but this latest report cited by Reuters, which predicts that the slowing economy will cause further unrest in Russia, lands firmly in the second category.

“Russia… demands serious reassessment of long-held assumptions,” analysts Alexander Kliment and Cliff Kupchan said in the report late on Friday.

They added that GDP growth in 2009 was “unlikely” to top 3 percent — in line with other analysts’ expectations — and negative growth is a real possibility early in the year. (…)

“For investors, the potential for more serious unrest will increase political uncertainty and could threaten the smooth functioning of the Russian consumer economy and supply chains.”