Few would describe relations between the United States and Russia as open or friendly over the past number of years, but the steep slide into open stridency following the invasion of Georgia really puts the matter rather beyond doubt. Whenever we see these kinds of swift changes in tone or unexpected abandonment of diplomatic moderation, it’s an alarm bell that means a change in thinking has occurred within the Kremlin, or at least among some of its members. Although President Dmitry Medvedev has gone to great lengths to publicly express that he has no preferences for the outcome of the upcoming U.S. elections, I think that there are some compelling reasons why we can read into the recent conduct and words of the Russian leadership that they prefer that Sen. John McCain secure victory over Sen. Barack Obama. I am not unaware that this is a seemingly controversial if not reckless theory, but let me assure you that I don’t arrive to this conclusion simply as a trouble making contrarian, but rather from a few observations of Putin’s domestic political expediencies. This has absolutely nothing to do with which candidate would run a more successful Russia policy (nor is it an endorsement), but rather much more to do with what benefits the siloviki see in having a John McCain administration installed in the White House.