The World Bank has a new report out with a pretty gloomy outlook on the Russian economy, as though the political burden weren’t already heavy enough on Alexei Kudrin’s shoulders.  Moscow may be attempting to build a “new global financial architecture,” but these forecasts from the old one, though not definitive, still matter.  Obviously the critical puzzle will be fiscal policy – how much the state spends, how much it saves, while keeping everybody happy in conditions of rising unemployment.  From The New York Times:

As the global recession deepened last winter, Russia spent about $200 billion, or a third of its precrisis foreign currency reserves, defending the ruble during a gradual devaluation. This spring the tables quietly turned as oil prices rose, and the Russian Central Bank has made back about $30 billion since March by intervening to prevent the ruble from appreciating, the report said.

Yet other factors are weighing on Russia’s prospects, the World Bank report said. A swoon in domestic demand, worse-than-expected global growth, tight credit and declining infrastructure investment are taking a toll, it said.