Economists Aleh Tsyvinski and Sergei Guriev have a new article on Russia’s resource curse, arguing that sustained high oil prices combined with a stagnating economy may create a repeat of the Brezhnev era, causing economic modernization and political reform to be delayed.

Even the recently announced privatization of non-controlling stakes in the largest state-owned firms ― while timely and laudable ― will not create an irreversible commitment to reform. So far, the government does not want to let control over these firms get into private hands. Hence, the sales that Prime Minister Putin announced will not increase the demand for pro-market institutions.

By contrast, the “70-80″ scenario seems increasingly likely. In June, during the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, participants in two sessions ― Russian government and business leaders, as well as influential foreign players ― were asked about the future of Russia’s economy. The results were drearily similar.