May 27, 2008 By Robert Amsterdam

The Unraveling of TNK-BP

presidium052708.jpgIt’s a big day in energy news for Russia, though understandably most reports are concentrating on Vladimir Putin’s efforts to use his new “Presidium” cabinet to push through with massive oil tax cuts in the order of $4 billion to boost production – a move that Alfa Bank believes could create a 20-30% upside for company stocks of Rosneft and LUKoil. However behind the salivating market headlines, there is a quieter story: the situation appears to be getting worse and worse for BP’s subsidiary TNK-BP in their protracted battle against state harassment and difficulties with shareholders. The continued expropriatory pressures on BP are making this dispute into an embarrassing eyesore of an advertisement for foreign investment in Russia, right at a moment when the new government needs to consolidate authority and legitimacy. How much longer before the executive steps in to straighten it out?