What happens when the largest exporter of natural gas in Central Asia (and the fourth largest reserves on the planet) declares its open disagreement with the Russia-led natural gas OPEC?  At the very least, it makes for an energy conference of heated diplomacy when heads of state meet in Ashgabat this week, as the Europeans fight for the Nabucco supply route direct to Europe (the word “bypass” is misleading), while the Russians fight for Gazprom’s continued total monopoly over the country’s exports.

We’re always impressed with the sophisticated negotiating techniques of the Turkmen leadership, but we’ve seen them play this game a couple too many times to get very excited about the possibilities for Europe to compete in a normal market in Central Asia alongside the Russians.  Turkmenistan’s decision making will likely depend three things – who they can get to pay the most, which foreign partners are the least likely to raise any human rights complaints further down the line, and what kind of tolerance they will have for shoddy treatment and hardball tactics from Gazprom (such as blowing up pipelines in response to open tenders).