With so many changes afoot in Germany following the elections, there is surprising little discussion about how all this is going to affect relations with Russia.  There’s a pretty good reason for that, as everyone assumes the likely appointment of Guido Westerwelle will pose little to no change from the former SPD-led Russia policy. 

Such was the conclusion of this piece on Russia Profile by Graham Stack, who argues that “Russia policy is likely to remain pragmatic and constructive, including disavowing Ukraine and Georgia’s bid to join NATO.”  Stack’s article was interesting in the amount of attention he gives to the lobbying muscle of Germany’s energy corporations, such as E.ON.  So while the CDU victory may have marginalized the Gerhard Schröder-leaning wing of the policy community, the Kremlin has done a pretty good job of diversifying its portfolio of high-level German influence.

Further, it is interesting to note that much of the Russia-is-going-to-control-us-with-gas fear mongering we have seen in Germany over the past couple of years actually has nothing to do with real energy security, concern for the integrity of EU, or even sovereignty of member states … it was a convenient pitch line for those invested in the country’s nuclear power plants to slow down the phasing out of these plants.