Right now as I am writing this, Nymex crude oil has just dropped back down $99.94 a barrel after briefly surpassing $100. Many analysts are pointing toward several contributing factors behind today’s commodity rally, including a refinery outage, the dramatic Exxon-Venezuela asset freeze battle, a broken pipeline in Nigeria, and even today’s news that the private Russian oil producer LUKoil has suddenly cut off supply to Germany allegedly due to a price dispute. What’s going on here? Lukoil’s Vagit Alekperov (left), President Vladimir Putin (center), and U.S. Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY) (right) in 2003. Proximity to power is not enough of a reason to jump to conclusions. (Photo by Stephen Chernin/Getty Images)