TODAY: Putin orders further cuts to Ukraine; Bulgaria supplies at ‘critical’ levels; EU officials forecasting further cuts.  Russia’s analysts offer predictable predictions; the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has ordered further cuts to Ukraine’s gas supply – supposedly of 20%, although Naftogaz reports the drop at around two thirds.  A Gazprom statement says the cut corresponds to the amount of gas – 65.3 million cubic meters – that Naftogaz ‘stole‘ (or ‘diverted‘, depending on your source).  Greece, Macedonia and Turkey have now all had their supplies via Ukraine suspended, and Bulgaria, which relies almost entirely on Russian gas, says gas supplies are at ‘critical‘ levels.  Hungary’s major oil and gas company says it has had to tap into reserves to cover a gas shortfall.  Read a summary of affected countries here.