In 2006, Thomas Friedman argued that the price of oil correlates to democracy in emerging markets. With characteristic grandeur he remarked, “give me $18-a-barrel oil and I will give you political and economic reform from Algeria to Iran.” But now with the economic crisis continuing to slag markets and pin down oil prices for the third straight month, many producer nations are shuddering under the weight of this burden. Is the First Law of Petropolitics finally getting its true test?

The thesis is most definitely being challenged in Russia, where we’ve seen the markets lose 70% of their value in just half a year, and erasing more than $300 billion of oligarch fortunes. Despite boasting what I believe are very strong economic and financial fundamentals (mostly thanks to Andrei Illarionov’s parting gift – the oil stabilization fund), the contraction observed in the Russian economy has illustrated just how powerfully dependent the country remains on the export of just one resource.  Earlier this week, oil trading on Wall Street fell below $50 a barrel, while the Kremlin appears to be steeling itself to fend off a popular revolt with riot squads and extended presidential terms.

But the assumption that the powers will just come crumbling down is premature, and it appears that low oil prices can be just as much as a threat to democracy as they are to authoritarians.