Right up there with swine achieving flight and hell freezing over, the probability that European bureaucrats would succeed in building the Nabucco natural gas pipeline was, at least up until a year ago, firmly placed in the realm of impossibility.

How things change.  Though nothing is yet guaranteed, on Monday officials from the five transit countries signed a formal agreement in Ankara, Turkey to proceed with the project, injecting fresh optimism into the initiative which could shatter Gazprom’s supply monopoly.

“It’s one of those steps that moves Nabucco out of the possible column and into the probable column,” one energy analyst told CNN.  “My own guess is roughly by the end of the year, it will be pretty clear that Nabucco will be built.“