Ed Lucas proposes a not-completely-implausible scenario of Russia and Estonia going to war as an illustration of Europe’s many misconceptions of security relations with Moscow.

Consider this scenario. Imagine that Estonian extremists start intimidating local Russians (who amount to around a third of the Estonian population). Russia can easily stoke this covertly, while demanding publicly that Estonia crack down. Then imagine that Russian activists (again, backed, discreetly, by Moscow) set up “self-defence units” which start patrols, and set up checkpoints. When the Estonian authorities try to stop this, the Kremlin complains; Russian military “volunteers” start mustering across the border, proclaiming their intention to defend compatriots from “fascism”. The Russian media report this with wild enthusiasm; the Russian authorities say they cannot indefinitely restrain the spontaneous patriotic sentiments of their citizens. Suppose Estonia requests support under Article IV of the Nato charter. At this point, Russia’s cultivation of assets in the West pays off. Germany, Italy and other big European countries tell Estonia to sort out its problems with Russia bilaterally.