Stephen Walt makes an interesting case for Washington to keep its hands off Iran’s dissident movement and allow events to run their course – drawing an analogy with the Velvet Revolution movement which broke from the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe.
If you’re looking for a useful historical analogy, think back to the “velvet revolutions” in Eastern Europe. Neoconservatives used to argue that the rapid and mostly peaceful collapse of communism proved that rapid democratic transformations were possible in unlikely settings, and they used that argument to justify trying the same thing in Iraq. (We all know how well that turned out.) In fact, the velvet revolutions were a triumph of slow and patient engagement from a position of strength. The upheavals in Eastern Europe were an indigenous phenomenon and the product of containment, diplomatic engagement, and the slow-but-steady spread of democratic ideals through the Helsinki process and other mechanisms. And the first Bush administration was smart enough to keep its hands off until the demise of communism was irreversible, which is precisely the approach we ought to take toward Iran today.