January 7, 2011 By James Kimer

Lukashenko’s Balancing Act

lukashenko010710.jpgJust one week into 2011, the situation in Belarus continues to worsen. The severe crackdown following disputed elections in late December has resulted in hundreds of new political prisoners, gagged media, and regular police raids of various organizations and institutions. Democracy is no longer in the vocabulary, and by contrast even Russia enjoys greater respect for certain basic rights. Even the most cynical critics of dictator Alexander Lukashenko were taken aback by the brutality of the repression, especially following a period of relative opening. In order to carry out this bald-faced affirmation of the authoritarian nature of his government, President Alexander Lukashenko had to carry out a delicate balancing act, settling disputes locally and playing outside countries off each other in order to fund his grip on power. This week we interviewed the Belarus expert and author Andrew Wilson to discuss these issues and the developing situation in Minsk. Interview with Andrew Wilson, author of the forthcoming book for Yale University Press “Belarus: The Last Dictatorship in Europe.” Q: Some 600 people were arrested in the post-election crackdown. What’s the current situation for political prisoners in Belarus? Andrew Wilson: In the aftermath of the crackdown, we’ve seen extraordinary pressure placed upon the local media, and news about what exactly happened on election night and the status of the detained is leaking out via social media. Although one of the jailed opposition candidates has been released, it looks like Lukashenko clearly intends to keep as many people in jail as possible to use as bargaining chips with the West. He has played this game before, and we shouldn’t get drawn in. Release of detainees should be a pre-condition for any talks with the US or the European Union – not a subject of such talks.