In case you haven’t been following the news, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has cancer.  After several surgeries and chemotherapy treatments in Cuba, Chavez has returned to a very tense political situation (even by Venezuelan standards), as he has moved forward the upcoming elections from December to October 2012.  In an interview with Mexico’s Milenio Semenal, one of the president’s doctors has disclosed that he is suffering from highly aggressive tumor located in the pelvic region, giving him only two years to live, in the surgeon’s opinion.

Without a clear successor or any strong institutions or party (the downside of authoritarian forms of populism), the time of the Chavistas appears to be drawing to a close, bringing forward the possibility of an opposition-led government and a series of political, economic and social changes that are difficult to imagine.  From the Russian perspective, there is considerable concern that their close ties and support of Chavez may be resented by the next government, resulting in the reversal of a number of crucial business deals in the areas of arms, oil and gas, and a number of financial joint ventures.  Writing on Petroleum World, former PDVSA boardmember Pedro Burelli writes that Russia may not necessarily lose out on their commitments, and, if they are willing to compete for these contracts in an open and transparent process, they stand a good chance to continue to be deeply involved in Venezuela.