Putin's Next Moves
Vladimir Putin's political survival will be based on his ability to re-unite his two core constituencies, but the baggage from his outsized personality is getting in the way.
Boris Akunin Interviews Alexei Navalny
Boris Akunin's interview with opposition darling Alexei Navalny enters into hostile territory, as the novelist confronts him on questions of nationalism.
Can Putin Survive Competitive Politics?
Throughout the course of Vladimir Putin's very long political career, he has never been burdened with the labors and occasional indignity of a genuinely competitive campaign. Now, for the first time, we are hearing arguments from Putin as to why he is still needed.
Khodorkovsky as a Political Currency
The unprecedented 400-page report released this week by the Presidential Council of the Russian Federation for Civil Society and Human Rights regarding the violations of law and mishandling of the second trial of Mikhail Khodorkovsky comes as a bombshell, landing in the middle of a series of protests punctuated by ...
The Russian Winter
Taken by surprise, the December 10th protests across Russia mark a turning point in Russian history, as Putin's social contract breaks down and citizens look to exercise more influence on the political process.
Today’s The Day The Teddy Bears Have Their Protest
Thanks to years of practice, an armory of draconian laws and a fistful of weapons, Russia’s law enforcement brigade have just about perfected the art of protest squashing. They have had their work cut out for them of late, with the rallies which have mushroomed across the country since December. The opposition are however proving consistently adept at inventing ways of eluding the iron claw of the authorities. We’ve seen Voina’s art protests, the Blue Bucket protests, single-person protests, clapping protests in neighboring Belarus: a whole panoply of alternative protest methods have emerged to evade the radar of the authorities. The latest innovation, in the Siberian city of Barnaul, is a testament to the sheer ingenuity of the local opposition. Protestors in the snow-laden town have created the simulcrum of a rally using a selection of placard-bearing figurines. Too cute to quash? Apparently not. The Independent reports: Read More
Energy Blast – Jan 27, 2012
Gazprom Chief Executive Alexei Miller has told German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung that Russia could respond with legal action to EU regulation which would increase the involvement of a third party in shipping gas to Europe through Russian pipes. With just two months to go before the investment deadline, Russia’s Finance Ministry has apparently still not initiated discussion on tax breaks for the Gazprom-led Shtokman venture because the operator has failed to provide profitability estimates. Having secured control of the country’s pipeline, Gazprom intends to increase gas export to Europe across Belarus by about 13% this year. The gas giant has increased gas supplies to Greece as a matter of urgency as the country’s supplies from Turkey are disrupted by a cold snap. On Sunday, Iran will debate a law which could cease exports of oil to the European Union as early as next week, says Reuters. Gazprom and Novatek are experimenting with an Arctic Sea route to Asia.
Today in Russian Business – Jan 27, 2012
From the World Economic Forum in Davos, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov considers the most complicated issues facing Russia’s economy. The FT’s Gideon Rachman suggests that Shuvalov failed to convince assembled investors that rule of law is correctly observed in Russia. According to Ria-Novosti, the size of the average bribe in Russia more than tripled in 2011 to $7866. VTB chief Andrei Kostin has said that the fears of foreign investors regarding political shifts in Russia have been exaggerated by the Western press. The bank, Russia’s second largest, could apparently issue and sell new shares to the market as part of further privatization. Alexei Ulyukayev, first deputy chairman of Russia’s central bank, discusses the need for honest elections and a host of economic issues in a video interview with Bloomberg. The IMF representative for Russia, Odd Per Brekk, warns that Russia may be more vulnerable to an external economic shock than it was in 2008. Vladimir Putin reminds observers there’s an election coming with a display of largesse: the Prime Minister has suggested that retirement benefits be increased from February 1 by 7% percent, instead of the initially planned 6.1%, and proposed free flights for soccer fans to the UEFA cup in June. Russian precious metals miner Polymetal has denied it is in talks with gold miner Polyus about a possible merger of the two companies.
RA’s Daily Russian News Blast – Jan 27, 2012
TODAY: Yavlinsky’s expulsion from presidential race confirmed; Churov attempts to re-brand himself; OSCE says webcams insufficient; UR stood up by opposition leaders; Siberian activists try playful new protest. Reluctant Medvedev; Shuvalov claims would pardon Khodorkovsky; Russian cases continue to dominate ECHR’s workload. NATO meeting on missile defense in jeopardy; archivist turns activist; the various woes of Russia’s climate
The Central Elections Commission has officially announced that it will refuse to register Yabloko’s Grigory Yavlinsky as a presidential candidate, confirming a report leaked earlier this week. His candidacy was refused on the basis that more than 25% of the 2 million signatures necessary for his bid were deemed ‘inadmissible’. Central Elections Commission chairman Vladimir Churov, who has rapidly become the face of electoral fraud for the opposition movement, defends his neutrality in the Moscow Times. Liberal Democrat deputy Leonid Slutsky has apparently told a PACE debate that charges of vote-rigging leveled against Russia are unfair. The OSCE has said that whilst being an ‘interesting’ idea, Vladimir Putin’s proposed webcams in polling stations are not a substitute for observers. The Guardian examines how the opposition in the Siberian city of Barnaul have resorted to doll protests (images of which can seen here) as a means of circumventing police censure. The Moscow Times reports that opposition leaders have chosen to skip a meeting with United Russia designed to stimulate dialogue over the groundswell of protest. 1,283 activists in Moscow are apparently gearing up for a vehicular protest on Sunday on the Garden Ring Road. The opposition rally planned for February 4 could be crashed by the All Russia People’s Front, says this report. Why the opposition should be wary of consorting with US Ambassador McFaul. Read More
Medvedev’s Soft Change Spurs Calls for Reform?
I enjoyed this unusual angle on Russia’s opposition movement, as seen by RFE/RL’s Brian Whitmore. His new piece up at The Power Vertical argues that the seeds of current political unrest ‘were planted during Medvedev’s presidency,’ at least partly because he was the one to plant the idea of modernisation, reform and a shift away from Putinocracy into the minds of the public in the first place. Medvedev was, of course, marketed as the moderniser. And even though Putin has been behind the scenes the entire time, the collapse of this powerful narrative, says Whitmore, has left a gap of anticipation.
Medvedev’s softer style (his Twitter account, his love for Deep Purple) and his rhetoric about modernization and reform — event though it wasn’t followed up by any real action — set expectations in society, especially among the urban middle class, that change was coming. As the professional class became accustomed to the more benevolent optics of the Medvedev presidency, it became more wedded to the idea of reform — and more allergic to a return of Putinism.
Energy Blast – Jan 26, 2012
Lukoil’s Neftochim refinery in Bulgaria has invested $1.5 billion in a large hydrocracking catalyst installation to process petroleum waste – worth about 10% of Lukoil’s next decade of investment projects. The cash goes to Italian company Technip for engineering, procurement and construction. Lukoil has also announced a $1.3 investment package for the Trebs and Titov fields. Together with a consortium of Russian companies, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) has started drilling its first oil well in the Orinoco crude belt. Tokyo Electric Power Co, or Tepco, the owner of the Fukushima nuclear power reactor, is to receive a $13 billion bailout in a government takeover. Iraq’s oil law continues to be delayed due to political crises, and may not be established this year. U.S. President Obama has unveiled several measures for boosting natural gas demand.
Today in Russian Business – Jan 26, 2012
Without mentioning the Jackon-Vanik amendment explicitly, U.S. President Barack Obama has called on lawmakers to approve permanent normal trade relations with Russia, with Michael McFaul indicating afterwards that it will be repealed. The First Deputy Chairman of the central bank says that interest rates will not be cut at this time, due to inflation slowing to 4.7%. Gold miner Petropavlovsk forsees 2012 output rising by 11% on last year’s totals. Russia may begin imposing protective grain duties from April of this year; EU milling wheat futures hit a four-month high yesterday in part due to rumours of possible Russian export curbs. Social network Vkontakte.ru may sell a small stake in advance of its IPO this year or next. Standard & Poor’s have released a report on the high risks faced by Russian insurers. Will Sberbank benefit from the European debt crisis? ‘Sberbank and Troika are eyeing moves into neighboring European countries.’
RA’s Daily Russia News Blast – Jan 26, 2012
TODAY: Moscow agrees to protest rally, opposition reject proposed route; Putin rails against U.S.; election observers plan their moves; draft law to ban ‘extremists’ from teaching; presidential candidate list finalised; Medvedev Q&A at Moscow State Uni; Russia Today wins Assange series broadcast rights.
Moscow’s City Hall agreed to sanction an opposition protest of 50,000 people on February 4, but Sergei Udaltsov, who is co-organising the next opposition protest march, says that protesters will not accept the alternative routes that authorities have proposed. At a campaign meeting in Tomsk yesterday, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin engaged in some ‘pre-election saber-rattling’ by accusing the U.S. of ‘want[ing] to control everything’. Golos has promised to deploy 2,000 election observers in March, despite facing ‘intensifying harassment’ from the authorities. United Russia says that it is ready to work with Yabloko’s election observers. The President’s Human Rights Council has launched a campaign for fair elections. Blogger Ilya Varlamov has been questioned by police for posting photographs of ‘strategic buildings’ online. A new draft law has been approved in the State Duma to ban citizens convicted of extremism from teaching in educational institutions at all levels. Mikhail Prokhorov’s presidential candidacy has been approved, finalising the ballot which comprises five candidates: Prokhorov, Vladimir Putin, Gennady Zyuganov, Sergei Mironov, and Vladimir Zhirinovsky.
Energy Blast – Jan 25, 2012
Vladimir Putin has pledged $8 billion in development aid for the coal industry. The majority of 70 legal cases held in Russia against oil companies in the wake of the fuel supply crisis last year were won – and TNK-BP could be fined up to $58 million for its role. A managar at Rosatom’s uranium-producer, Atomredmetzoloto, has been fired because of a $480,000 New Year’s part. ‘Should the oil price decline a lot — as in 2008 when it fell from $145 to $35 — the [Russian] government budget deficit could reach 10 percent or more of GDP.’ E.ON has increased its stake in its own electricity arm, buying 3.26% for an estimated $164 million. Ukraine insists that it has enough fuel in storage to last the winter. Gazprom is searching for ways to boost exports to Europe. Iraq approved a $998 million service contract with South Korea’s Samsung Engineering for the West Qurna Phase Two oilfield.
Today in Russian Business – Jan 25, 2012
Corporate law firms are actively seeking out foreign companies based in Russia in a bid to help them win back tax money amid claims of ‘tax discrimination’. Russia needs more qualified workers: ‘No matter how well we organize our demographic policies, new people in such quantities will not be appearing soon.’ Industrial production is at its lowest level since October 2009 over concern’s about the European debt crisis. The Governor of Irkutsk is calling for a ‘real deadline’ for the close of the Baikal Pulp and Paper mill – controversial due to its waste-dumping at the UNESCO world heritage site of Lake Baikal. Sales of mobile handsets in Russia have returned to pre-crisis levels, rising roughly 16% to over 40 million units last year. Low levels of wheat available for exporting, displaced by limited resources in the south, are pushing prices up. The Novorossiysk aims to export 1.2 million metric tons of grain in the first quarter.
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