Reuters is reporting that the Russian authorities are cutting down on the number of CEOs allowed to join the parallel business summit, and are planning on moving it from a luxury hotel to inside the Kremlin to keep tighter control.  That just looks bad.

U.S. businessmen are expected to use a Russia-U.S. business summit on Tuesday to press Moscow to rein in corruption and improve conditions for western companies operating in the country. (...)

"It looks like the Kremlin doesn't really want this discussion and Russian business is not very keen either," said one industry source. (...)

And in a sign of unease about the business summit, industry sources say the list of executives who will meet Obama and Medvedev may be cut to 10 from each side from 18 and access for media may also be restricted.

They also said the meeting could be moved to the Kremlin from a luxury hotel, in a further indication that Russian authorities wanted to keep a tight grip on the talks. The Kremlin declined to comment.

We often hear from U.S. observers all about the mutual interests that Washington and the Kremlin share in curbing Iran's march toward nuclear proliferation and other indications of growing hostility, yet it's funny how we usually see nothing but obstruction.  We've speculated in the past that Russia benefits most from preserving the status quo, and want to maintain their swing position.  This opinion from David Kramer is also interesting:  for one, Russia may indeed be interested in seeing U.S. diplomacy succeed in Iran (indeed they are more directly threatened), but they want to see other countries do the heavy lifting.  Secondly, they just don't have all that much influence over Tehran.  From Voice of America:

But other analysts, including David Kramer, a former senior U.S. State Department official in the Bush administration (now with the German Marshall Fund in the United States), say Russia's influence over Iran is limited.

"I've been skeptical about Russia's ability: one - to have leverage to use over Iran, and two - its willingness to do so, even if it did have it," said David Kramer. "Russia has a lot of interests in Iran: significant trade, nuclear reactor construction, energy, arms sales. And I've been of the view that Russia would much prefer for the United States and other countries to play the role of the bad guy, to lean on Iran, to be the one pushing for sanctions while Russia stays in the background."

Is it a mistake for President Barack Obama to only meet with President Dmitry Medvedev?  Andrew Kuchins thinks so.  From the Moscow Times:

There should be no illusions about where ultimate decision-making authority in Russia resides today. The "tandem" is a fiction, of course. Obama must operate under the assumption that on any issue of importance to him -- from nuclear arms reductions to Afghanistan to Iran -- the ultimate arbiter for Russian policy is Putin.

This does not mean that meeting with Medvedev is a waste of time, but it must be assumed that every position taken by Medvedev has been blessed by his mentor. Obama must also harbor no illusion that the United States can take measures in Moscow to empower Medvedev or his Western-leaning colleagues in the government.  (...)

Since Putin is clearly the most important and powerful figure in Russia, I hope that Obama does not shy away from engaging with him in an environment where they can have a real discussion. Obama should go to Putin's dacha and take a walk in the woods -- with or without translators -- and say what needs to be said in a clear and forceful way.

I like this last idea of the private talk.  With so much emphasis placed upon Russia's leadership needing to "look tough" in front of the new administration, as well as the general consensus that the Kremlin is unsure of what it wants beyond respect, this approach could help to strip away some of these extenuating factors.

The following is an English translation of an interview with Mikhail Khodorkovsky in the Italian magazine L'Espresso:

My life in a gulag 

Talks with Mikhail Khodorkovsky by Gigi Riva

The political and economic interests behind his case. The difficult life in prison. His enemy Putin. The desire of redemption. Exclusive interview with Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former Russian richest man.

He will struggle, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, "until death or release." Former oligarch and patron of Yukos, in jail for the last six years for tax evasion, fraud, money laundering, is having a second trial (see box). In this exclusive interview with 'L'espresso', made possible by his lawyers who addressed him our questions in prison, Khodorkovsky pinpoints the political and economic interest behind his troubles. He talks about Putin and Medvedev as well as about Berlusconi. He speaks about the prisons and the moments in which, even today, in 2009, they can become gulag. However, he still has hope. For himself. For his country.

Mr. Khodorkovsky, may you please describe a typical day in prison?

The European Commission's Gas Co-ordination Group has warned Europe to brace itself for a potential gas disruption, and suggests that EU countries need to prepare themselves more actively for the possibility.  The turnaround in Europe's attitude towards nuclear power, stoked by a desire to diversify away from Russian energy supplies, is the subject of an article in the FT.  The Economist suggests that the Ukraine-Russia gas war, rather than emphasizing Europe's dependence on Russian gas, has simply made it a far less attractive prospect.  Hungary's Mol may lose the license that its Russian joint venture owns to an oil and gas deposit in western Siberia.   In Russia the State Council Presidium has assembled to discuss energy efficiency.  Gazprom is looking for deals in Africa and the Caspian Sea area, where it feels it needs to be 'strategically present'.  The company has started exploration as part of the Sakhalin-3 project.  Egyptian company Maridive may sign contracts to build pipelines in Russia and India.  Russia is apparently not producing enough oil to fill a new $4 billion pipeline to the Baltic.  Barack Obama is expected to urge Russia to change its attitude to alternative energy supplies. 

Avtovaz has warned that with its gargantuan losses, it may be difficult to face the future without more state help.  Unilever intents to build an $140 million ice cream factory, which will be the biggest plant in Russia to make the frozen dessert.  Medvedev has warned regional leaders that they must use 'all means available' to pay wage arrears.  The government is planning to launch measures to combat unemployment in 20 one-company towns.  Shipbuilder Sevmash has been berated by Medvedev, after there were delays in building an aircraft carrier for a $1.6 billion deal with India.  Apparently Chinese state-run carmaker Beijing Automotive Industry Holding is gearing up for an offer for Opel, but Sberbank has said it does not 'see any serious competition'.  President Medvedev has said that economy class housing should cost no more than 30,000 rubles per square meter.  The Russian Audit Chamber has said that Cuba had three times delayed paying back the Russian credit provided in September 2006 and yet the Kremlin imposed no fine.  Megafon may buy up to 5% of Vimpelcom shares.  Forbes reports on how foreign investors' fears about Russia are substantial and substantiated.

I just couldn't resist the alliteration temptation. What we're looking at here is the broader directions that should result from next week's Obama-Medvedev powwow.

Former U.S. National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski offers a three-pronged strategy in the Financial Times for President Obama when he travels to Moscow next week. In the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs, Robert Legvold offers a template for improving US-Russia relations in general. Since this is a blog, and not a newspaper or brick-sized bi-monthly periodical, I'm going to re-engineer the formats of these two articles into what should be an easy reference in the future for those not willing to plow through a 6,000-word appeal to the Obama Administration to redesign relations with Russia NOW. First, Brzezinski:

Polls show that Russia is one of the nations whose citizens are least interested in Barack Obama, and pessimistic that his leadership will head toward positive changes in international relations.  That means that if Obama were hoping to survive on the charm offensive, pitching an over-the-heads speech along the lines of the Cairo approach to the Muslim world, he will be disappointed, argues Paul Starobin on CNN.

Obama cannot call for democracy in Islamic societies while altogether ignoring its retreat in Russia. More generally, Americans, and American presidents, like to steer clear of the vocabulary of realpolitik, a language redolent of the Old Europe against which America decisively rebelled centuries ago.

The likelihood, then, is for stalemate in the contest between Obama's campaign for the hearts of the Russians and their demand to be free of American meddling in their old imperial stomping grounds.

The Russian people are probably not going to come away with a pronounced negative view of Obama -- he is acutely sensitive to cultural protocol wherever he goes and has yet to make a wrong step. But as for his global charm offensive -- this is where it comes to a halt.

Stephen Blank has an interesting new article on Forbes in which he assesses the economic damage being caused by Russia's inability to effectively reduce legal nihilism and corruption, both of which are dragging on the country's attempt to recover from the crisis.  Sticking out like a sore thumb is of course the second trial of Mikhail Khdorkovsky, which will be in full session during the first state visit of President Barack Obama.  Blank describes the Khodorkovsky trial as a "palpable judicial farce," and if President Dmitry Medvedev is unable to take action to solve the situation it will "confirm the widespread belief that he is merely a tool of his predecessor, a placeholder until Putin resumes the presidency."

When he was a candidate to lead Russia, Dmitry Medvedev denounced the country's "legal nihilism." Now, as president, he has often spoken in favor of judicial independence. Yet one year after his inauguration, with President Obama set to pay a state visit on Monday, Russia remains engulfed by a tidal wave of corruption, hamstrung by a politicized justice system that is chasing away the enduring foreign investment and economic stability that Russia so desperately needs.